Project Conception, Design, Data Analysis, Mathematical Formulas: Joshua Grossman

Programming: Ben Barcellos

Collation and Production: Leslie Stewart

This site is intended to enable progressive organizations and donors to make better-informed decisions on targeting their resources. We’ve assembled data on multiple factors* that affect political outcomes and made it possible to compare and combine them by adjusting all the data to the same 100-pt. scale.

You can select the specific categories that are most relevant to the criteria you like and weight them in terms of priority: set the slider bars wherever you want – our software will adjust accordingly and produce ranked results by Congressional district or by state, displayed both on a map and as a list.

Here's a YouTube video of our webinar where Joshua introduced and explained the site.

9134069974 a look at how Joshua has used this site to create a list of Congressional districts to target between now and 2020.

*Here’s the hierarchical tree of categories on the next pages, shown here to give you an overview. These are on the slider bars on the State and District pages with descriptions of the significance of each, including whether they are most useful when working on primaries or general elections. Not every category has data for both Congressional Districts and States. Categories may be added or updated in the future.

  • I. Presidential election results PRI=good for primary elections. GEN = good for general elections.
    • A. Super-recent view (Trump/Clinton)
      • 1. Clinton % +Sanders write-in minus Trump+McMullin Margin (Higher Clinton is at Top) (Pri/Gen)4168707968
      • 2. Clinton+Sanders minus Trump+McMullin (Tight Margin is Ranked Higher) (Gen)
    • B. Medium view – 2012 + 2016 averaged
      • 3. 2012 Presidential Election Results (Higher is Better) (Pri/Gen)
      • 4. 2012 Presidential Election Results (Closest Margins at Top Regardless of Winner) (Gen)
  • II. General fluidity of electorate – just how many swing voters are up for grabs?
    • 5. Change in Dem Presidential Margin from 2012 to 2016 = Ranked from More to Fewer Swing Votes in State/District. Movement by the electorate from 2012 to 2016 in either direction. This is measuring general percentage of swing voters, not necessarily positive trend, unlike category 6. (Gen)
  • III. Is the state/district moving our way?
    • 6. Difference in Dem Margin 2016 over 2012 = Ranked Best to Worst. To what extent is the district/state moving specifically in our direction in presidential election returns, comparing 2012 to 2016. This is measuring positive trend not general percentage of swing voters, unlike category 5. (Gen)
    • 7. Difference in Net Margin from Oldest Cohort to Margin for Youngest Cohort. In a given district/state, how much more progressive are the youngest voters compared to the oldest voters? How rapid a change do we have to look forward to? (Pri/Gen)subscrive
  • IV. The strength of the incumbent in his/her district/state.
    • 8. Title: Percent margin incumbent won by in 2016 general election. (Gen)516-746-4008
  • V. How great or terrible are House/Senate incumbents compared to their district/state?
    • 9. Progressive Punch Lifetime Crucial Votes Score Compared to District with High Absolute Value. (Pri/Gen)(916) 350-2412
    • 10. Progressive Punch 2017-18 Crucial Votes Score Compared to District with High Absolute Value. (Pri/Gen)
  • VI. Looking to the future - redistricting
    • 11. Crucial State for Redistricting (Gov Race). Gen
    • 12. # of Competitive State Leg. Districts w/Flippable State Leg. (Gen)(819) 982-2490
  • VII. Looking to the future – besides redistricting
    • 13. CD contained in state with winnable US Senate race – Primary Weighting. Pri - sorted from strongest Dem state to weakest6017804003
    • 14. CD contained in state with winnable US Senate race – General Weighting. Gen - sorted from swingiest state to least swingy state7722525312
    • 15. (District) Small State, House Rep Much More Likely to Be Elected Senator Some Day than in a Big State. (Pri/Gen)
      (State) Small State, More Bang for Buck in Senate Race. (Pri/Gen)8063088807
    • 16. Crucial State for Winning Presidency in 2020. (Gen)
    • 17. Crucial CD w/in Crucial State for Winning Presidency. (Gen)
  • VIII. So how progressive is this turf?
  • IX. District/state demographics (all Gen except those with college-educated are also Pri)
    • 20. Black citizen voting age population. (Gen)7023698311
    • 21. Latina/Latino citizen voting age population. (Gen)(407) 766-1600
    • 22. Asian-American citizen voting age population. (Gen)
    • 23. Multi-racial/other citizen voting age population. (Gen)
    • 24. Total non-white citizen voting age population. (Gen) (Total citizen voting age population minus white non-Hispanic citizen voting age population).2407019993
    • 25. White percentage with college degree. (Pri/Gen)
    • 26. Total non-white percentage citizen voting age population + college-educated white percentage. (Pri/Gen)
    • 27. Non-white citizen voting age population growth rate. (Gen)(219) 730-0622
    • 28. Union membership density. (Gen)